Looking Back at Predictions Past

Randy Bennett typically laughs at what coaches think of his team, then proceeds to create a game plan and beat them.

This was meant to be a serious blog post with lots of insight analysis and beautiful flowing statistics. I was determined to go out and argue that the national “pundits” will be wrong once more and quotes like “Gonzaga is, once again, the powerhouse team in the league. But the difference this season from the past couple of seasons is that Saint Mary’s will likely take a hit. Randy Bennett and the Gaels have gone to the NCAA tournament in three of the past four campaigns, but it will be difficult to imagine this team getting back this season.” from ESPN’s Jeff Goodman that make me cringe.

And then I took a look at last year’s WCC Pre-Season Coaches Rankings. And the one from the year before. And the year before. And I laughed. And I came to the simple conclusion that pre-season ranking are complete trash because there are so many things that could go wrong and right for teams (no-one predicted Olynyk to transform into a lottery pick…). This phenomenon is commonly referred to by Moraga residents (and those who spend time there) as “No matter what you predict, Saint Mary’s will be better than that.” I give you the pre-season coaches poll followed by the actual final standings.

2010-11 WCC Men’s Basketball Preseason Coaches Poll 
Team – (First Place Votes) – Points
1. Gonzaga (6) – 48
2. Loyola Marymount (1) – 42
3. Saint Mary’s (1) – 39
4. Santa Clara – 28
5. Portland – 25
6. San Francisco – 18
7. Pepperdine – 14
8. San Diego – 10

2011-12 WEST COAST CONFERENCE PRESEASON POLL
Team (First Place Votes), Points
1. Gonzaga University (7), 63
2. Saint Mary’s College (1), 56
3. Brigham Young University (1), 52
4. University of San Francisco, 42
5. Santa Clara University, 35
6. Loyola Marymount University, 27
7. University of Portland, 25
8. Pepperdine University, 13
9. University of San Diego, 11

*I would like to draw your attention to fact that BYU is voted closer to Saint Mary’s the last two years in the pre-season, but has finished closer to fourth place than second (and yes, they were one game back of second place in their premier season, but need I post the box-score of their semi-final game vs Gonzaga that year?) All arguments made that Dave Rose is a better head coach than Randy Bennett are invalid. With the resources (both financial and recruiting), BYU clearly has under-preformed in WCC play. Will this be the year they surpass Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga? In my eyes, no.*